Brent Crude Oil Predictions for 2026, 2030 and 2040

The year 2026 started on an interesting note for Brent crude oil predictions, with the US military raid on Venezuela creating uncertainty that could impact oil markets and the Brent oil outlook for 2026 and subsequent years.

Brent crude started the year on a bullish note and has traded in the low $60s since then. The current trading session sees Brent crude in bullish territory. This translates into a 3.25% weekly gain as of writing as current USD weakness seeps into crude oil, silver gold and other commodities.

Brent Crude Live Chart

Brent Crude Oil Predictions: Fundamental Drivers

Five interesting price drivers are shaping up to be the fundamental influences for Brent crude in 2026 and beyond. These are:

• Supply and demand dynamics
• OPEC Policy
• Geopolitics
• Macro Demand
• Sanctions/shadow supply Flows

1. Supply vs Demand

This is the dominant factor driving Brent crude oil predictions and price action. News releases to watch include the EIA global inventories, forecasts, and monthly outlook reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Of course, there are also the Commitment of Traders reports issued every week by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The EIA expects global inventories to rise in 2026, which is expected to exert downward pressure on Brent crude prices. Brent crude forecasts average around $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, with price trading around that level throughout the year.

2. OPEC Policy

A Reuters poll of oil traders indicates that OPEC policy will be one of the fundamental influences on traders’ watch in 2026. Oil prices gradually edged lower in 2025 after the oil cartel started lifting production curbs. Furthermore, demand from China following the trade dispute with the US added to the downward pressure on prices. The key factor to watch for is whether OPEC may be under pressure to defend a price floor.

3. Geopolitical risks

The US raid in Venezuela and the protests in Iran (coupled with the US military buildup in the Middle East) has added a geopolitical risk premium to the mix. A Reuters report has analysts adding a $4 risk price premium due to the Iran crisis.

4. Supply from Sanctioned Countries

The recent US action in Venezuela, the country with the world’s largest oil reserves, indicates a potential for a shift in the export outlook from there. This is a factor that could gain importance in the months to come.

5. Global Risk Sentiment

Global economic conditions and growth outlook produce a risk-on/risk-off dynamic that impacts crude oil prices. Risk-off episodes could pressurize oil prices, especially if US-China tensions rear up once more.

Brent Crude Oil Prediction 2026: Institutional Targets

What are the Brent crude forecasts for 2026?

The Energy Information Administration has a $55 per barrel price target for 2026. A Reuters poll of 34 economists conducted in December 2025 indicates an average price of $61.27, leaving virtually no upside from current prices.

Goldman Sachs is an investment bank and represents sell-side entities, most of which have a lower-for-longer outlook. Goldman Sachs’ Brent crude forecasts have crude prices drifting lower in 2026 from oversupply pressures, with a mid-$50s price call for 2026.

Brent Crude Oil Prediction 2030

Institutional Brent crude oil predictions for 2030 come from Goldman Sachs, Equinor, UBS, and Shell.

Goldman Sachs has a long-term outlook/scenario pathway that sees Brent crude averaging $75 per barrel over the 2030-2035 period. UBS has a research-based outlook that projects a $28/barrel Brent crude price from 2028. Equinor has a long-term corporate outlook covering 2030-2040, and has set its Brent crude oil prediction at $75 per barrel.

Shell’s corporate modelling assumptions see Brent crude trading at $70/barrel. However, sister company BP calls for a 2030 target of $55 per barrel.

Brent Crude Oil Prediction 2040

Brent crude oil predictions for 2040 represent a long-term outlook outside the time frame of regular price outlooks from institutional entities. However, the outlook from Equinor carries into 2040, and so does that of Wood Mackenzie, which comes up as an end-of-decade Brent crude forecast of $100/barrel.

Brent Crude Technical Outlook

The double bottom on the daily chart is now testing resistance at 65.13. A break above this mark gives the bulls clear skies to aim for the 71.28 price mark, the prior high of 14 July.

On the flip side, rejection at the current barrier allows for a pullback to the 62.25 neckline. Below this level, 60.00 (the October 2025 and 8 January lows) enters the mix as the next downside target, followed by the 5 May/16 December 2025 lows at 58.79.

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